Can past gamma-ray bursts explain both INTEGRAL and ATIC/PAMELA/Fermi anomalies simultaneously?

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been invoked to explain both the 511 keV emission from the galactic bulge and the high-energy positron excess inferred from the ATIC, PAMELA, and Fermi data. While independent explanations can be responsible for these phenomena, we explore the possibility of their common GRB-related origin by modeling the GRB distribution and estimating the rates. For an expected Milky Way long GRB rate, neither of the two signals is generic; the local excess requires a 2% coincidence, while the signal from the galactic center requires a 20% coincidence with respect to the timing of the latest GRB. The simultaneous explanation requires a 0.4% coincidence. Considering the large number of statistical "trials" created by multiple searches for new physics, the coincidences of a few per cent cannot be dismissed as unlikely. Alternatively, both phenomena can be explained by GRBs if the galactic rate is higher than expected. We also show that a similar result is difficult to obtain assuming a simplified short GRB distribution.Comment: 4 pages; version accepted for publicatio

Gestion intégrée de l'eau au sein d'un bassin versant

Dans la vallée du Merguellil, le barrage d'el Haouareb sépare le haut-bassin, très varié dans sa géologie, sa morphologie et son hydrologie, de la vaste plaine alluviale, plus homogène, élément de la plaine de Kairouan. Le barrage construit en 1989 bloque tous les écoulements vers l'aval et provoque involontairement l'infiltration des eaux de surface vers un karst puissant, lui-même en contact avec plusieurs aquifères. Les interactions entre les diverses composantes hydrologiques régionales sont nombreuses et encore insuffisamment quantifiées. Nous donnons ici l'état des connaissances actuelles et les prochaines recherches à entreprendre. Comme attendu en milieu méditerranéen semi-aride, les apports au barrage sont très variables dans le temps. A plus de 60 %, ils disparaissent dans le karst. La recharge des aquifères, qui s'effectuait autrefois lors des crues les plus fortes du Merguellil, connaît donc un nouveau régime. Les années les plus humides induisent toujours une remontée des piézométries des nappes adjacentes (Aïn el Beidha à l'amont, alluvions de la plaine de Kairouan à l'aval). Cependant, le trait régional majeur est la surexploitation de la nappe alluviale par des forages de plus en plus nombreux répondant à une forte extension de l'irrigation. La baisse de cette nappe dépasse 1 m/an par endroits et rien ne peut présumer une diminution de cette chute dans les prochaines années. (Résumé d'auteur

Velocity and depth distributions in stream reaches: testing European models in Ecuador

We tested how European statistical hydraulic models developed in France and Germany predicted the frequency distributions of water depth and point-velocity measured in 14 reaches in Ecuador during 25 surveys. We first fitted the observed frequency distributions to parametric functions defined in Europe and predicted the parameters from the average characteristics of reaches (e.g. discharge rate, mean depth and width) using European regressions. When explaining the frequency of three classes of velocity and three classes of depth among reach surveys, the fitted and predicted distributions had a low absolute bias (< 3%). The residual variance of fits relative to the mean class variance was < 18%. The residual variance of predicted frequencies was 30-61% for velocity classes and 20-36% for depth classes. Overall, the European models appeared appropriate for Ecuadorian stream reaches but could be improved. Our study demonstrates the transferability of statistical hydraulic models between widely-separated geographic regions

Stably non-synchronizable maps of the plane

Pecora and Carroll presented a notion of synchronization where an (n-1)-dimensional nonautonomous system is constructed from a given $n$-dimensional dynamical system by imposing the evolution of one coordinate. They noticed that the resulting dynamics may be contracting even if the original dynamics are not. It is easy to construct flows or maps such that no coordinate has synchronizing properties, but this cannot be done in an open set of linear maps or flows in $\R^n$, $n\geq 2$. In this paper we give examples of real analytic homeomorphisms of $\R^2$ such that the non-synchronizability is stable in the sense that in a full $C^0$ neighborhood of the given map, no homeomorphism is synchronizable

Evolution de la ressource en eau dans la vallée du Merguellil (Tunisie centrale)

International audienceLa plaine de Kairouan (Tunisie centrale) se trouve au débouché des trois grandes vallées du Zéroud, du Merguellil et du Nebhana. Dans ce contexte semi-aride (pluies moyennes entre 200 et 400 mm.an−1), l'intensification de l'irrigation au cours des dernières décennies a suscité une forte croissance de la demande en eau. En même temps, différents aménagements affectent l'ensemble du fonctionnement hydrologique : multiples ouvrages de conservation des eaux et des sols, petits et moyens, d'une part, grands barrages de protection contre les crues sur les trois oueds majeurs d'autre part. La distribution de l'eau B la surface du bassin-versant et dans le sous-sol a donc considérablement évolué et change encore. Dans la plaine du Merguellil, à l'aval du barrage el Haouareb, la nappe alluviale quaternaire est devenue la seule ressource en eau disponible. Elle est actuellement exploitée sans réel contrôle, ce qui conduit à une baisse sensible de son niveau (de 0,25 à 1 m par an). Elle n'est plus alimentée comme en régime naturel par les crues de l'oued, désormais entièrement bloquées par le barrage. Elle ne reçoit plus que les apports des nappes latérales et le flux souterrain passant sous le barrage. L'avenir du développement agricole régional dépend de manière évidente de la maîtrise de la ressource souterraine et donc de sa bonne connaissance. Malgré de multiples mesures de terrain et études entreprises depuis plusieurs décennies, il reste encore de nombreuses incertitudes qui rendent le bilan actuel de la nappe très incertain, à la fois sur les flux entrants et sortants. La surexploitation est nette et générale et aucune solution alternative simple n'apparaît. Le risque d'augmentation à long terme de la minéralisation existe mais ce problème est moins grave et moins immédiat que la baisse piézométrique

Indices of the iterates of ({\Bbb R}^3)-homeomorphisms at fixed points which are isolated invariant sets

Let (U \subset {\mathbb R}^3) be an open set and (f:U \to f(U) \subset {\mathbb R}^3) be a homeomorphism. Let (p \in U) be a fixed point. It is known that, if (\{p\}) is not an isolated invariant set, the sequence of the fixed point indices of the iterates of (f) at (p), ((i(f^n,p))_{n\geq 1}), is, in general, unbounded. The main goal of this paper is to show that when (\{p\}) is an isolated invariant set, the sequence ((i(f^n,p))_{n\geq 1}) is periodic. Conversely, we show that for any periodic sequence of integers ((I_n)_{n \geq1}) satisfying Dold's necessary congruences, there exists an orientation preserving homeomorphism such that (i(f^n,p)=I_n) for every (n\geq 1). Finally we also present an application to the study of the local structure of the stable/unstable sets at (p)

The temporal pattern and lifestyle associations of respiratory virus infection in a cohort study spanning the first two years of life

Background: Respiratory virus infection is common in early childhood, and children may be symptomatic or symptom-free. Little is known regarding the association between symptomatic/asymptomatic infection and particular clinical factors such as breastfeeding as well as the consequences of such infection. Method: We followed an unselected cohort of term neonates to two years of age (220 infants at recruitment, 159 who remained in the study to 24 months), taking oral swabs at birth and oropharyngeal swabs at intervals subsequently (at 1.5, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months and in a subset at 3 and 4.5 months) while recording extensive metadata including the presence of respiratory symptoms and breastfeeding status. After 2 years medical notes from the general practitioner were inspected to ascertain whether doctor-diagnosed wheeze had occurred by this timepoint. Multiplex PCR was used to detect a range of respiratory viruses: influenza (A&B), parainfluenza (1–4), bocavirus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, coronavirus (OC43, 229E, NL63, HKU1), adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and polyomavirus (KI, WU). Logistic regression and generalised estimating equations were used to identify associations between clinical factors and virus detection. Results: Overall respiratory viral incidence increased with age. Rhinovirus was the virus most frequently detected. The detection of a respiratory virus was positively associated with respiratory symptoms, male sex, season, childcare and living with another child. We did not observe breastfeeding (whether assessed as the number of completed months of breastfeeding or current feed status) to be associated with the detection of a respiratory virus. There was no association between early viral infection and doctor-diagnosed wheeze by age 2 years. Conclusion: Asymptomatic and symptomatic viral infection is common in the first 2 years of life with rhinovirus infection being the most common. Whilst there was no association between early respiratory viral infection and doctor-diagnosed wheeze, we have not ruled out an association of early viral infections with later asthma, and long-term follow-up of the cohort continues

Particle approximation of the one dimensional Keller-Segel equation, stability and rigidity of the blow-up

We investigate a particle system which is a discrete and deterministic approximation of the one-dimensional Keller-Segel equation with a logarithmic potential. The particle system is derived from the gradient flow of the homogeneous free energy written in Lagrangian coordinates. We focus on the description of the blow-up of the particle system, namely: the number of particles involved in the first aggregate, and the limiting profile of the rescaled system. We exhibit basins of stability for which the number of particles is critical, and we prove a weak rigidity result concerning the rescaled dynamics. This work is complemented with a detailed analysis of the case where only three particles interact